Black and White Program

Friday, March 12, 2010 12:51:32 AM

Economic Life in China

February 13th, 2009 by Kyle Rankin

The world’s third largest economy is showing signs of positive growth resulting from the injection of funds rooted in their stimulus package. Reports from economic analysts in China indicate that their economy may expand 6.6% in its second quarter. China’s economy had slowed to 6.3% in its first quarter. A $585 billion (U.S) stimulus package had been placed into effect by the Chinese government in the past few months. During the decline– its worst since 1999– China has lost over 20 million jobs, due primarily to a major decline in exports as the world economy demands less of the China-produced goods. Exports have declined to levels not seen in over 13 years and imports dropped a stunning 43%.

“China looks set to be the first major economy to recover from the current global meltdown,” said Lu Ting, an economist with Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong. “China is the only economy in the world to see significant growth in credit to corporate and household sectors after September 2008, when the financial crisis worsened to a near collapse.”

China’s plan, initiated in November of 2008, called for major infrastructure constructions of public housing, equipment and machinery, and railway systems. As with other countries’ crises, China is facing a severe drop in property values. According to a Chinese government report, house prices across 70 major cities declined by the largest amount since data collection began in 2005.

Nonetheless, China’s economy is still growing and government funding of projects is commonplace. Many sources indicate that China has a significant advantage over other countries, as there is not a major negative or toxic asset problem to contend with. While analysts view the last quarter’s 6.6% growth indication as positive, and the projected year’s growth is pegged at 7.2%, government officials point out that their growth rate was 12% in 2007, and 9% in 2008. It is estimated that stimulus spending by the government will contribute as much as 3 points to this years growth totals, while the steep decline in exports will slash 1.2 percentage points off of growth numbers.

While other governments have significant financial resources at their disposal to draw from, China has, in some ways, one of the best source of funds to deal with their individual crisis among the world economic crisis. A significant amount of U.S. debt is financed by China, and the upcoming stimulus packages in the U.S. is expected to increase that debt.

While China’s economic numbers appear to be headed in a positive manner, the loss of jobs during the past two quarters has caused political unrest, and the source of economic growth is not directly job-creation related. Many analysts predict that China’s ability to restore jobs will lag in the upcoming quarters until a growth rate of over 10% is restored.

Public investors also appear to have a positive outlook regarding China’s growth rate as well as stock transactions that are on the rise to levels that rival those of three years ago when their economic growth was in full swing.

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